Examining a Chiefs trade-up for Thomas Jr.
Tyler Brown
Chiefs' general manager is notorious for moving around the draft board, so examining the possibilities is a good exercise. The 2024 draft is a deep wide receiver and offensive tackle class, but the fact is that many of the first or even second-tier guys will be gone by pick 20 or before.
Back in 2022, the Chiefs traded up to pick 21 from pick 29 and added in a third and a fourth to draft the now all-pro cornerback Trent McDuffie. This was because Kansas City had a high first-round grade on him and when the value became too obvious, they pounced. That is the blueprint for a Chiefs trade-up in 2024.
For the wide receiver position, there is a clear top-three at the wide receiver position in Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. As far as the next tier, there is really only one and that is Brian Thomas Jr.
NFL Draft Combine breakout Xavier Worthy, along with some other risers such as Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey could certainly go above Thomas Jr. because all it takes is one team to fall in love with a skillset. If all things are equal though, Thomas Jr. is the clear-cut number four wide receiver prospect.
He is this year's wide receiver version of Trent McDuffie, but the only question is whether or not he will fall as McDuffie did. Thursday I will look at a certain trade-back candidate, but today I want to look at why and how the Chiefs could trade up for the potential blue-chip wide receiver out of LSU. Veach loves trading up for prospects he falls for and Thomas Jr. could be that guy. Kansas City has three picks in the top 100 this season and now has four in 2025 at their disposal for a McDuffie-type of trade-up.
So, why would the Chiefs want to trade up for Thomas Jr., rather than wait to see what falls to them? Well for one, there is some uncertainty surrounding second-year wideout Rashee Rice right now and Hollywood Brown is only under contract for one year currently. Other than those two, the depth chart is putrid.
Secondly, Thomas Jr. is a ridiculous athlete who put up some of the best numbers in all of college football and comes from a program that produced Justin Jefferson, Jamarr Chase and many others. At six-foot-four, 209 pounds, he ran a 4.33 40 after a 2023 season where he posted nearly 1,200 yards and an astonishing 17 touchdowns.
On the Relative Athletic Score, which takes into account body size and athletic measurables, Thomas Jr. finished in the 99.7 percentile among wide receivers at the combine since 1987.
This might not sound appetizing at the moment, but many have likened him to a supped-up version of Marquez Valdez-Scantling. He is a long, lean and fast wide receiver who will stretch the defense and can go up and get it with the best of them. Thomas Jr. actually produced in college at a major, power-house university, too. He caught over 78 percent of the passes that came his way in 2023, while MVS caught just barely over 50 percent from Patrick Mahomes.
He would give the Chiefs' receiving room a true no-ceiling unit and compliment the others perfectly. He played 408 of his 472 snaps out wide this season, which allows Rice to continue to eat out of the slot while Kelce also remains roaming in the middle of the field. The great thing about Hollywood is that he is also a deep threat, so the Chiefs would have two dangerous runners streaking downfield. The other thing Brown can do though is thrive in the intermediate areas and in the jet-motion, Andy Reid schematic brilliance type of stuff.
Suffice it to say the additions of both Brown and Thomas Jr. would take the Chiefs from a top 12-ish offense back into the top five, at a minimum. With the Chiefs keeping most of their defense intact, which was top two in most categories last season, Kansas City would be sitting pretty if they can actually trade up for Thomas Jr without mortgaging a ton of the future.
Of course, the Chiefs have the last pick in the first round and according to PFF 16 different teams have a need at wide receiver. Of those, however, the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots are likely taking a quarterback. Harrison Jr., Nabers and Odunze are likely going in the top 11 picks, but crazier things have happened.
The further they get pushed back, the more quarterbacks and offensive tackles taken, the better odds the Chiefs get within striking distance of a Thomas Jr. After the top 10 picks, that leaves only 9 teams that have a need at receiver and five of those teams have a need at offensive tackle in an even more historically deep tackle class. Of course, the remaining nine have other needs as well.
What threw a real wrench in the Chiefs' hopes for Thomas Jr. was the Bills trading wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Bills have all but pigeonholed themselves into taking a wideout with Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel being their top two.
If the Chiefs really want Thomas Jr., they can either plan or hope. They can plan to move up above the Bills and other teams that they have intel on, such as the Steelers at pick 20. Moving ahead of the Bills, who sit at pick 28, would be particularly humorous because the Chiefs infamously moved up ahead of them in 2022 to take McDuffie before they were forced to take the now first-round bust, Kaiir Elam.
Like I said the Bills are desperate though, and they could also move up to get Thomas Jr. What the Chiefs can hope for is that the Bills, or other teams ahead of them that are interested in a wide receiver are fascinated by the tantalizing speed and route running ability of Worthy, or the size and speed that Mitchell possesses.
If that were to happen, and Thomas Jr. falls to say pick 25, the trade-up becomes a no brainer and the Chiefs could give up pick 32 and their third according to most trade value charts, but may have to sweeten it with a late-round or future pick due to “Chiefs Tax.” To move up to pick 21, like the McDuffie trade they are again looking at a first, third and fourth, at least.
So, how realistic is it that Thomas Jr. falls past the top 20? Let’s check in on the experts and what their latest mock drafts have to say about where he will land.
- Dane Brugler of The Athletic: Pick 15, to the Indianapolis Colts
- Mel Kiper of ESPN: Pick 20, to the Pittsburgh Steelers
- Field Yates of ESPN: Pick 18, to the Cincinnati Bengals
- Lance Zierlein of NFL.com: Pick 16 to the Arizona Cardinals (Trade)
- Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com: Pick 23 to the Arizona Cardinals (Trade)
So as you can see, it is not entirely likely, as the experts only have Thomas Jr. falling after pick 20 in one of these scenarios, but weirder things have happened. There are six true tackles that are rated ahead of Thomas Jr. on PFF’s big board and if all of them are taken, that deepens the likelihood he is available. Not to mention the Chiefs have a need at tackle, so if there is a huge run on receivers, the Chiefs could be primed to pick up a good tackle in round one, which is also ideal.
If teams like the Broncos and Raiders get brazen by selecting quarterbacks such as Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix, prospects like Thomas Jr. have a much higher chance of falling. Not only should Chiefs fans be rooting for those positions to be taken, but they should also be rooting for interior offensive linemen, edge rushers and defensive backs to be taken due to the Chiefs not having a very big need in those areas. Running backs and linebackers would be ideal too but there are not any at those positions being projected in round one.
Who knows, maybe Thomas Jr. will be the 12th overall pick and this entire exercise was a waste of time. Nobody had McDuffie making it to pick 21 either though, leaving Chiefs Kingdom dreaming of Thomas Jr. in 2024. On Thursday, we’ll look at the diet version of Thomas Jr. – Troy Franklin out of Oregon. He could be a prime trade-back candidate if the Chiefs do not like the way the board fell to them at 32.
